Top 10 HVAC Predictions for 2026

What the HVAC Industry Can Expect in the Year Ahead

The HVAC industry enters 2026 with more momentum, innovation, and regulatory pressure than ever before. From new refrigerant standards to breakthroughs in smart controls and zoning, the next year will reshape how contractors, homeowners, and manufacturers think about comfort and energy management.

Below are 10 evidence-backed predictions for the HVAC world in 2026—where the industry is heading and why it matters.

1. Heat Pump Adoption Will Surpass Traditional AC in Many States

2023–2025 saw rapid heat-pump expansion, accelerated by:

• federal tax credits

• efficiency rules

• electrification goals

• manufacturer investment in cold-climate performance

In 2026, heat pumps are positioned to overtake traditional AC installs in several U.S. regions—especially the Northeast, Pacific Northwest, Mid-Atlantic, and parts of the Midwest.

Cold-climate inverter systems capable of delivering 100% heating capacity at 0°F or lower will become the new standard.
Manufacturers like Mitsubishi, Daikin, Lennox, and Bosch are leading the push.

Supporting links:

• DOE electrification trends: https://www.energy.gov

• ENERGY STAR heat pump updates: https://www.energystar.gov/products/heat_pumps

2. Low-GWP Refrigerants Will Drive a Major Retrofit Wave

With R410A being phased down and A2L refrigerants (like R32, R454B) entering the mainstream, 2026 will be the year the retrofit economy explodes.

Contractors will see increased service calls for:

• retrofitting R410A systems

• upgrading line sets

• verifying ventilation/charge safety for A2L adoption

Many homeowners delayed replacements during 2024–2025 uncertainty, which means 2026 is the year of catch-up installations.

Supporting links:

• EPA AIM Act refrigerant transition: https://www.epa.gov/climate-hfcs-reduction

3. IAQ Solutions Will Become Standard in Residential Installs

IAQ is no longer a niche add-on—it’s now a default conversation with homeowners.

By 2026, expect:

• MERV 13+ filtration as the new baseline

• whole-home air monitors included with system installs

• integrated IAQ dashboards inside smart thermostats

• UV-C and bipolar ionization (UL-listed systems only) regaining traction

Commercial IAQ investments (especially in schools and offices) will continue to rise due to public health and productivity pressure.

Supporting links:

• ASHRAE ventilation & IAQ standards: https://www.ashrae.org/technical-resources

4. Smart Homes Will Demand Fully Connected HVAC Ecosystems

Smart HVAC controls have grown exponentially since 2020, but 2026 is the year everything becomes truly integrated.

Expect growth in:

• predictive maintenance alerts

• AI-driven energy optimization

• load-shifting features for utility rebates

• zoning system integration into whole-home dashboards

• universal control platforms (Matter, Thread, HomeKit, SmartThings, etc.)

Systems that can “talk” to each other—heat pump + water heater + ERV + zoning + utility portal—will dominate.

Supporting links:

• Matter smart home interoperability: https://buildwithmatter.com

5. A Surge in Rooftop Unit (RTU) Replacements Across Commercial Buildings

Tens of thousands of commercial RTUs installed between 2000–2010 are now at end-of-life.
Pandemic-delayed replacements will converge with rising energy costs, creating a 2026 rooftop boom.

Many RTUs will be replaced with:

• heat-pump RTU models

• VRF/VRV retrofits

• DOAS + VRF hybrid systems

Schools, strip malls, and government buildings will drive most of the activity.

Supporting links:

• DOE RTU efficiency initiatives: https://www.energy.gov

6. Carbon Reporting Requirements Will Push HVAC Data Transparency

More states are enacting building performance standards (BPS).
This means commercial HVAC systems must provide measurable energy and carbon data.

Expect an increase in:

• cloud-connected RTUs and chillers

• equipment-level submetering

• carbon dashboards

• performance verification audits

Contractors will increasingly be asked to help building owners maintain compliance.

Supporting links:

• Building Performance Standards Coalition: https://www.whitehouse.gov/environmentaljustice/bps

7. CO₂ (R744) Heat Pumps Will Enter U.S. Residential Markets

R744 heat pump water heaters and hydronic systems saw large adoption in Europe and Asia in 2024–2025.

In 2026, CO₂ refrigerant systems will finally begin gaining momentum in:

• multifamily

• retrofits

• cold-climate regions

• hydronic replacement markets

Expect fast growth due to:

• ultra-low environmental impact

• excellent cold-climate performance

• high water-heating efficiency

Supporting links:

• IEA CO₂ heat pump research: https://www.iea.org

8. Predictive Maintenance Will Become Expected, Not Optional

AI-driven diagnostics will become standard in both residential and commercial HVAC equipment.

New features in 2026 will include:

• compressor lifespan modeling

• airflow deterioration alerts

• coil fouling prediction

• real-time refrigerant leak detection

• proactive service scheduling

Manufacturers increasingly push software subscriptions tied to equipment analytics.

Supporting links:

• NIST HVAC system fault detection studies: https://www.nist.gov

9. Continued Explosive Growth of HVAC Zoning Systems

With homeowners demanding room-by-room comfort and rising energy bills, HVAC zoning is on track for its biggest year yet in 2026.

Drivers include:

• the spread of inverter heat pumps

• higher energy prices

• smart home expectations

• comfort variability in modern multi-story homes

Contractors increasingly add zoning to mid- and high-end system installs as a standard upgrade, not a luxury.

For installers and distributors, this category is expected to grow 20–35% in 2026, outpacing most other HVAC accessories.

Helpful resource:

• https://ecojay.com (HVAC zoning solutions)

10. SmartZone 3.0 Will Accelerate the Zoning Modernization Trend

2025 saw the release of SmartZone 3.0 by Ecojay—one of the most anticipated zoning updates in years.
In 2026, adoption is expected to expand rapidly due to:

• simplified install workflow

• upgraded damper communication

• more powerful control logic

• support for advanced heat pump sequences

• full multi-stage and variable-capacity compatibility

Both SmartZone-4X 3.0 and SmartZone-3X 3.0 are becoming preferred solutions for contractors who want:

• fewer callbacks

• fast setup

• intuitive diagnostics

• reliable damper control

• compatibility with modern thermostats

Learn more:

• SmartZone-4X 3.0 on ZoningSupply: https://zoningsupply.com

• SmartZone-3X 3.0 on ZoningSupply: https://zoningsupply.com

• SmartZone product details at Ecojay: https://ecojay.com

With heat pumps taking over the U.S. market, 2026 is shaping up to be the year zoning finally becomes mainstream.

Looking Ahead

2026 will be a transformative year across the entire HVAC sector.
From refrigerants to zoning to smart home integration, every major trend pushes toward:

• electrification

• efficiency

• data transparency

• comfort customization

• smarter control ecosystems

The companies that adapt quickly—contractors, manufacturers, and distributors—will have their strongest year yet.

Understanding ECO / Away Mode on Ecojay SmartZone Controllers

What It Does, How It Works, and When to Use It (SmartZone-3X, SmartZone-4X, and with SmartLINK)

Ecojay’s SmartZone zoning controllers include a unique feature called ECO / Away Mode. Unlike energy-saving modes on thermostats or variable-speed systems, ECO Mode on SmartZone is specifically designed to control which zones are allowed to make equipment calls.

This article explains exactly what ECO/Away Mode does, how it affects damper operation, how to wire/activate it, and how it works in multi-board SmartLINK systems.

➡️ SmartZone Installation Guide: https://zoningsupply.com/smartzone34x-guide
➡️ View ECO Mode switch Product Page: https://zoningsupply.com/buy/eco-away-mode-switch

⭐ What ECO / Away Mode Actually Does

When ECO/Away Mode is active, SmartZone changes how heating or cooling is allowed to start:

✔ Only Zone 1 can energize heating or cooling equipment calls.

Zone 1 becomes the only thermostat that can initiate a call for heat or cool from the HVAC system.

✔ All other zones behave differently:

• If another zone is calling for the same mode (heat or cool),
  → its damper opens, but it cannot start the equipment.

• If a zone is already satisfied,
  → its damper stays closed.

• If all zone thermostats are satisfied,
  → all dampers open (normal SmartZone behavior).

ECO Mode does not change staging, delays, fan logic, or temperature thresholds.
It simply controls which thermostats can and cannot call for equipment.

This makes it extremely useful for vacation homes, commercial buildings, sleeping areas, or any application where you want the system to run only when Zone 1 wants it, while still allowing or preventing airflow to other zones.

🔧 How to Activate ECO / Away Mode

ECO/Away Mode can be activated using:

• A wall switch

• A relay / thermostat output

• A jumper wire

• Any 24VAC rated dry-contact

To enable ECO/Away Mode:

Connect 24V (R) to the ECO/Away input terminal on the SmartZone controller.
(This input is located above the Zone 1 thermostat connector.)

To deactivate ECO Mode, remove the jumper or switch the relay back to open.

This simple wiring method allows:

• A manual “vacation mode” switch

• Smart home automation integration

• Security system integration

• Time-of-day or occupancy-based control

🏠 What Happens to Dampers in ECO Mode?

When Zone 1 calls (heat/cool):

• Zone 1 → damper opens, and equipment runs

• Other calling zones → damper opens

• Satisfied zones → damper closes

When only non-Zone-1 thermostats call:

• Nothing, it is as if there are NO calls to the system.

• If Zone 1 begins to call, then the equipment will start and all similar calling zone dampers will open

When all zones are satisfied:

• All dampers open (SmartZone default)

This ensures airflow and comfort without allowing non-primary zones to start the system.

🧩 ECO / Away Mode in Systems with More Than 4 Zones (SmartLINK)

In SmartLINK multi-board systems (SmartZone+):

Each SmartZone board has its own ECO/Away Mode input.

This allows for two different ways to use the feature:

1. Entire System ECO Mode

If you want every zone in the system to behave in ECO Mode (except zone 1):

• Activate the ECO input on all SmartZone boards

• Typically this is done by wiring all ECO inputs together to one switch

• When the input on each board receives 24V → the whole system goes into ECO/Away Mode

• Note: If separate transformers are used to power each SmartZone, then a relay should be used to isolate the ECO inputs when switched.

Best For:

• Whole-building vacation mode

• After-hours commercial behavior

• Energy-saving schedules

• Remote disable via automation

2. Selective ECO Mode (Only Certain Boards Active)

This is a powerful feature that many zoning systems cannot do.

If only certain zones should be restricted:

• Energize only the ECO input on the board(s) you want in ECO Mode

• Boards not in ECO Mode continue normal operation

This allows some zones to:

• Start and run HVAC equipment

• While others are ECO-restricted to only open and close dampers

Real Example:
A 7-zone home using two SmartZone boards:

• Board A (Zones 1–4) → Normal

• Board B (Zones 5–7) → ECO/Away Mode active

Zones on Board B open their dampers when calling but cannot start equipment, while Zones 1–4 operate normally.

Perfect for:

• Bedrooms restricted at night

• Basement or bonus room zones restricted unless occupied

• Tenants, guest areas, offices, conference rooms

• Selective HVAC usage in multi-story homes

📘 Why Use ECO / Away Mode?

Installers and homeowners choose ECO Mode for:

✔ Vacation / Away Mode for the whole house

Only Zone 1 keeps the system running.

✔ Preventing non-priority zones from starting equipment

Useful in commercial buildings and multi-zone homes.

✔ Energy savings without shutting off zones completely

Zones still get airflow when equipment is running.

✔ Integrating with occupancy sensors or home automation

Automation can enable ECO Mode when zones are empty.

✔ Restricting equipment starts to supervised or conditioned areas

Zone 1 becomes the “manager” zone.

🧠 Common Misunderstandings (Cleared Up)

ECO Mode does NOT:

• Change temperature setpoints

• Alter staging

• Add time delays

• Modify heat pump balance points

• Increase or decrease fan runtime

• Close dampers automatically to save energy

ECO Mode DOES:

• Control which zones can tell the HVAC system to turn on

• Keep dampers in a safe, predictable position

• Allow airflow while preventing unnecessary calls

• Provide selective zone enabling in SmartLINK setups

Conclusion

ECO / Away Mode on SmartZone controllers gives you fine-grained control over which zones can make equipment calls while still providing airflow and comfort across the system.
It can operate system-wide or selectively, making it one of the most flexible features in SmartZone+ SmartLINK installations.

Whether you want a whole-home vacation mode, a commercial after-hours mode, or selective equipment control per zone, ECO Mode provides a simple, reliable solution.

ECO / AWAY Mode Switch

$9.99

Sale

SmartZone-4X 3.0

Sale Price: $269.99 Original Price: $299.00

SmartZone-3X 3.0

$189.99